Jobless Claims

Last week’s inflation reports, both the CPI and PPI, came in significantly cooler than expected. However, this must be viewed in the context of the administration’s recent tariff policies. Rather than signaling a healthy reduction in inflation, the data points to signs of deflation—which can be just as damaging to the economy as high inflation. While the FOMC Minutes offered little insight regarding interest rate changes, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has made it clear that no action will be taken until more data becomes available. Finally, the latest consumer sentiment report dropped to its lowest level in three years,…

The previous week has seen tremendous impacts with the Trump administration's recently revealed tariff policies, sparking widespread concern about their broad economic effects. These concerns have already led to rapid contractions in multiple markets. Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, has stated he is very uncertain about any moves made by the Federal Reserve and wants to wait for additional information before making decisions. Uncertainty is at an all-time high, without much relief—even in light of positive data from previous months. Without any clear direction, there is growing speculation that inflation will only increase from here. Meanwhile, employment data…

With the introduction of tariffs on Tuesday, there is significant uncertainty across all sectors regarding the potential outcome. While important data releases—including the PCE Index, Personal Income & Spending, and Consumer Sentiment for the quarter—have taken place, their impact is expected to be largely overshadowed by apprehension surrounding the widespread tariff decisions. With the upcoming release of inflation reports, including the CPI and PPI this week, all eyes will be on these two key metrics. The focus remains on tariffs and their impact on the markets, as well as inflation, which is likely to be influenced by the new tariff…

The previous week had the Federal Reserve making their first rate decision since the Trump administration had taken office. With many uncertainties about the current direction of things, the Federal Reserve had decided there would not be any change necessary to the current rates. Stating that the current inflation and economic conditions have largely been a result of the Trump administration’s policies on tariffs. Chairman Powell has been strongly dovish at this point, stating they would need to “see how things actually work out.” There were a slew of other minor data releases but none were far reaching in their…

The inflation data report released last week showed a surprising result—it was cooler than expected across the board. This has led to a much more positive outlook, even in light of recent events regarding the Trump administration. While consumer sentiment reports from the University of Michigan still showed more dissatisfaction than expected, they were accompanied by largely positive data across various releases. There are strong expectations that there will be no interest rate increases, with some potential for rate cuts this year. Consumer Price Index The consumer price index increased a mild 0.2% last month, the government said, breaking a…

While the data releases were plentiful, many are made less significant in consideration of the current disruption with the administration and the oncoming inflation data reports with the CPI and PPI arriving next week. The largest and most noteworthy report this time is the Job Report numbers, which will help give a clearer idea on the state of the job market. With the mass federal layoffs, there is much uncertainty, but the labor market is still holding up in light of things. The most pressing data to be released is the predictions for GDP, which has shown to have shown…